:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A B1 flare occurred at
10/2311Z from newly assigned Region 1012 (S06E62). The new region is
a simple, A-type sunspot group. No other activity of note occurred
during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 February). An
increase to unsettled with a chance for active periods is expected
for the third day (14 February) in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 070
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10