:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S05E48)
produced todays only flare, a B4 at 1619Z. The event was associated
with a relatively symmetrical wave that was well defined in the
STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13-15 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (13 February) and partway
through the second day (14 February). During the latter part of the
second day and continuing through the third day (15 February) a
favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity
to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 070
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/005-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/35
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/35/35
Minor storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/10