:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1012 (S06E34)
produced a B2 event at 13/0535Z.  This event had an associated CME
which was observed in the STEREO imagery (Ahead and Behind).  The
region remains a simple alpha sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active periods for the next
three days (14-16 February) due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 070
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  010/010-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10