:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The visible solar disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. 
An increase in temperature, speed, and density were observed in ACE
solar wind measurements around 14/0300Z indicating a co-interaction
rotating region (CIR) in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.  Interplanetary Bz fluctuated between +13 to -14 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated periods of active conditions
for 15 February.  Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
February.  Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 17
February as the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 070
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/05
Minor storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/10/01