:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours.  The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.  ACE solar
wind speeds averaged around 580 km/s as Earth continues under the
influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream
pattern.  The interplanetary Bz ranged between +4/-4 nT.  The
greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 16 February. 
Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 17-18 February.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 070
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01