:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours.  The solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind speed steadily decreased
from 550 - 440 km/s.   The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 070
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01