:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the period.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  During the period, solar wind speed
steadily decreased from about 440 km/s to near 375 km/s.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (18 - 20
February)
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 071
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01