:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the period.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period (19 - 20 February).  By day three (21 February),
predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 070
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  005/005-005/008-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor storm           01/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01