:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2009 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2009 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed and the visible disk remains spotless. A weak, slow moving CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 19/0154Z. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels early in the summary period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (20 February). By days two and three (21 - 22 February), predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be geoeffective. III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 069 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/008-012/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/15 Minor storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/20 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01