:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels on days
one and two of the forecast period (21 - 22 February).  Isolated
active periods are possible on 21 February.  This increase in
activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position.  By day three
(23 February), mostly quiet conditions will prevail.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 069
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  012/012-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor storm           15/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01