:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with one period of
unsettled conditions at mid-latitude.  Solar wind speeds have
increased steadily through the period from around 340 km/s to 430
km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
conditions on 22 February due to a recurrent coronal hole. 
Predominately quiet conditions are expected on 23-24 February as the
coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 071
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  008/009-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01