:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Unspotted Region 1013
(N26W19) produced an A3 x-ray event at 27/0714Z with a subsequent
slow moving, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
lifting off the NW limb at 27/0906Z.  A 9 degree filament located at
S38W46 was observed to have lifted off the disk between 26/2358Z to
27/1423Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an
isolated active period observed at middle latitudes at 27/1200Z. 
This activity was most likely produced by a low-latitude extension
of the southern polar coronal hole.  During the summary period,
solar winds speed gradually increased from about 400 km/s to near
650 km/s by 27/1200Z and maintained that velocity through the end of
the period.  During the elevated portion of the high speed flow, the
Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (28
February - 02 March).  The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to
be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 069
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01