:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. 
The visible solar disk was spotless.  A slow moving, asymmetric CME
was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at
27/1931Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.  Solar winds speeds
decayed steadily throughout the summary period from a high of near
700 km/s to a low of about 500 km/s.  The Bz component of the IMF
remained mostly north (+2 to +4 nT) for a majority of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two of the forecast period (01
- 02 March).  By day three (03 March), activity levels are expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods
possible at high latitudes.  This increase in activity is due to a
coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position.  The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to
be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 071
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01