:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period from 0000-0300Z. Solar wind velocity remained
elevated during the past 24 hours, ranging between 500-560 km/s. The
solar wind signatures are consistent with the continuation of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled levels and a
slight chance for an isolated active period on the first day (12
April) due to the continued presence of elevated solar wind
velocities. Activity levels are expected to be quiet for the second
and third days (13-14 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 069
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01