:Product: 0417RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Apr 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The solar disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind speed averaging around 420 km/s with Bz
fluctuations around +/- 4 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for 18-19 April.  Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for 20 April due to a recurrent
enhancement in solar wind velocities.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Apr 070
Predicted   18 Apr-20 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Apr 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01