:Product: 0418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Observations
from the ACE spacecraft show solar wind speeds gradually increased
through the period from about 400 km/s to near 550 km/s with IMF Bz
fluctuations around +/- 5nT, all due to continued effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 19 - 20  April as the coronal hole
high speed stream will have rotated out of a geoeffective position. 
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 21 April due to a
recurrent enhancement in solar wind velocities.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 070
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01