:Product: 0421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
New Region 1015 (N22 W65) was numbered during the period.  The
region formed on the disk and is a simple Axx alpha spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated a gradual decay in wind speeds, from near 450
km/s to 390 km/s, through about 21/1100Z.  Since that time, and
through the remainder of the period, wind velocities increased to
about 460 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 22 April due to a
recurrent enhancement in solar wind velocities.  On 23 - 24 April,
mostly quiet conditions are expected.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 071
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01