:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active
levels at high latitudes, on days one and two (06 - 07 May) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected on day three (08 May) as the effects of the high speed
stream decrease.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 068
Predicted   06 May-08 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 May 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  010/012-007/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01