:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A slow CME on the
northeast limb was first observed by SOHO C2 coronagraph at 0150Z.
Two class B1 flares were observed at 8/2127Z and 9/0133Z. These
flares were associated with activity on the northeast limb. No spots
were observed on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated period of
unsettled conditions was observed between 9/0900 and 1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled activity. No increase in geomagnetic activity is expected
from the CME mentioned in Part 1A.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 072
Predicted   10 May-12 May  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        09 May 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01