:Product: 0704RSGA.txt :Issued: 2009 Jul 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2009 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 1024 (S27E02) emerged early in the period and produced numerous B-class events during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a B8 at 0437Z. The group grew rapidly and is currently a D type sunspot region with an area of about 140 millionths. The magnetic analysis showed a beta group with a single, East-West oriented polarity inversion line. The frequency and intensity of flare activity from the region appeared to be decreasing slightly during the last four hours of the period. The remainder of the solar disk was quiet and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare during the next three days (5-7 July) from Region 1024, especially if it continues to grow. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (5-7 July). III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jul 071 Predicted 05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Jul 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01