:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1024
(S27W13) produced a C2/Sf flare at 05/0713Z, as well as frequent
B-class flares. Minor changes were observed in the region since its
rapid emergence yesterday. It retained a beta magnetic structure
with some polarity mixing evident in its intermediate spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is also a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1024.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels throughout the forecast period (06 -
08 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 072
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01