:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled levels after 13/1200Z. ACE solar
wind data indicated a coronal hole high-speed stream commenced
around 13/1200Z. Velocities gradually increased after 13/1200Z and
reached a peak of 505 km/sec at 13/2029Z. Intermittent periods of
southward IMF Bz occurred beginning around mid-period (minimum -9 nt
at 13/1309Z).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (14 July).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the balance of
the period (15 - 16 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 067
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01