:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (15-17 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed from
0000-0600Z due to intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (-9 nT)
accompanied by a coronal hole high-speed stream. The average speed
of the high-speed stream was about 530 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to decline to quiet levels and remain quiet for the next
three days (15-17 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 067
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 070
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  013/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01