:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares occurred during
the last 24 hours.  The visible solar disk is spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. 
Observations from the ACE spacecraft observed a gradual increase in
the solar wind velocity starting around 22/0000Z.  This was followed
by an increase in density, variations in the IMF Bz (-17/+14 nT),
and enhanced Bt (peaks to 17 nT) between 22/0000Z and 22/0800Z. 
Current solar wind speeds are averaging around 470 km/s indicating
the influence of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active levels, for the next two days (23-24 July).  Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for day three (25 July) as the coronal hole
high speed stream begins to wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 068
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  068/068/069
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01