:Product: 0808RSGA.txt :Issued: 2009 Aug 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2009 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected and the visible disk remained spotless. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated the unsettled conditions were due to a period of southward IMF Bz coupled with increases in velocities and IMF Bt associated with a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities reached a peak of 533 km/sec at 08/0615Z, then gradually decreased to a low of 429 km/sec by the end of the summary period as the high-speed stream subsided. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 -10 August), with a chance for active periods, due to another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels by day 3 (11 August) as the high-speed stream subsides. III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Aug 067 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/007-007/007-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/05 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/10 Minor storm 10/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01