:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated the unsettled conditions observed during
09/0300 - 0900Z were associated with a period of sustained southward
IMF Bz (minimum -4 nT at 09/0300Z). Solar wind velocities ranged
from 408 - 481 km/sec during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels on day 1 (10 August) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
during days 2 - 3 (11 -12 August) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 067
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  067/067/067
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01