:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained void of spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18
August) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS)
begins to disturb the field. A further increase to unsettled to
active levels, with a slight chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day 2 (19 August) as the CH HSS persists. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (20
August) as the CH HSS subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 068
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  068/068/068
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  007/007-015/015-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/25
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/40/30
Minor storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01