:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single unsettled
period was observed at high latitudes between 13/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, with isolated unsettled periods on day one (14
September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods
at high latitudes, are expected on days two and three (15-16
September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 069
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  007/007-007/010-008/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01