:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomantic field is expected
to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, for the next
two days (16-17 September). This increased activity is expected as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. The
geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet levels on the third
day (18 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 069
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  069/069/069
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  008/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01