:Product: 0919RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred and the
solar disk continues to be void of sunspots. There are indications,
however, of a possible new active region behind the east limb based
on Stereo-B EUVI and GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. A gradual increase in background levels is expected and a
slight chance for an isolated B-class flare is anticipated as the
new region rotates onto the disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (20-22 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 071
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  072/074/076
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01