:Product: 0922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. There were two x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, a B3 at 1057Z and a B4 at 2041Z.
Both of these events originated from Region 1026 (S29E57) which has
rotated into view as a small, C-type sunspot group with a simple
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1027 (N24E31) emerged on the
disk today and appears to be a small D-type region in a simple beta
magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 September). There is a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 075
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  077/077/077
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01