:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1026 (S29E28)
produced a B1 x-ray flare at 24/0020Z.  This region remains an
H-type spot group.  Region 1027 (N24E05) continues to grow slightly
in area and spot count and remains unchanged in its magnetic beta
configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.  There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (25 September).  Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions, are expected for
day two (26 September).  This activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to return for day three (27 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 075
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 068
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  005/005-010/012-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/25
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/35/30
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01