:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1027 (N23W47)
indicated a slight increase in area and spot number and maintains a
bipolar magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated minor storm
period observed at middle latitudes between 28/0600 - 0900Z.  An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 28/0400Z - 0800Z that contributed to the minor storm.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two (29-30 September).  Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on day three (01 October) due to a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 073
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01