:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity occurred. The visible disk was spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream that commenced yesterday began to gradually
subside early in the period. Velocities gradually decreased from 435
to 350 km/sec during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (13 - 14 October).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (15 October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown
coronal hole begins to influence the field.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 070
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01