:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (14 October).  Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days 2 - 3 (15
- 16 October) as an equatorward extension of the northern crown
coronal hole begins to influence the field.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 070
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  070/070/072
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  001/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/005-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01