:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed. 
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  A period of sustained
southward Bz (-3 to -4 nT) from 15/2100Z to 16/0600Z contributed to
an isolated unsettled period at 16/0600Z observed at middle
latitudes.  Wind velocities steadily decreased through the period
from a high of near 440 km/s to a low of about 370 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (17 -
19 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 070
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01