:Product: 1017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No significant flare
activity was observed. However, isolated eruptive activity was
observed in a plage region near S28W01. EIT wave activity and weak
x-ray enhancements were associated with the eruptions. Thus far,
there are no indications of Earth-directed CME activity associated
with the eruptions.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (18 - 20 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 071
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01