:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A southern plage region
(S28W14) produced a two-ribbon flare around 17/1900Z associated with
a minor x-ray enhancement and an EIT wave. LASCO images showed a
faint, slow-moving (around 230 km/sec), Earth-directed partial-halo
CME was also associated with the flare.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (19 - 21 October).
No significant field effects are expected from the CME mentioned
above.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 070
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01