:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Region 1028 (N26E38) has decayed to spotless plage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (22 - 23 October). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 October) in response
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 071
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01