:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
New Region 1029 (N14E14) was numbered. Region 1029 is a nine-spot
bi-polar sunspot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed ranged from approximately 370 to 400 km/s, while Bz reached a
minimum of -9 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for the next two days (24 - 25 October) in response to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are
expected on day three (26 October).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 073
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  072/072/072
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 069
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01