:Product: 1117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A B1.5 flare occurred at
17/1259Z, most likely originating from the new emerging flux region
near N19E68.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for days one and two (18-19
November). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated
active periods, are expected late on day three (20 November). The
increase in activity is expected as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 077
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  078/079/080
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  000/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/006-005/007-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01