:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1033 (N19E34) a Bxo-beta , has grown in area and
sunspot number. Region 1032 (N15E07) a Bxo-beta, has shown little
change. No flares have occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for  isolated active periods
for the next two days (20-21 November) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high-speed stream. Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels for the third day (22 November).
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 077
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 072
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  010/010-015/015-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/10
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/10
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01