:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1033 (N18E07)
remains a Bxo-beta region.  No significant flares were observed
during the past 24 hours.  The SOHO/C2 images observed a slow moving
(around 200 km/s) Earth directed CME at 21/0755Z.  EIT images also
showed a wave pattern, associated with the CME, located in the
vicinity of a filament channel around S40E30.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the continued influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.  Solar wind speed rose through the
period from 430 -575 km/s with Bz fluctuations from -8 to +9 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (22-24
November).
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 076
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  078/078/078
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 071
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01