:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Isolated low-level B-class
flares occurred during the latter half of the period. Region 1035
(N31W70) showed no significant changes during the period. New Region
1038 (N16W26), a simply-structured A-type group, was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with an isolated C-class flare possible from Region 1035.
There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (21 - 23
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 084
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  084/080/076
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01