:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated B- and C-class flares
occurred. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 1036 (S28W70) at
23/1017Z. Region 1036 showed no significant changes during the
period. Region 1038 (N15W69) gradually decayed during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
during days 1 - 2 (24 - 25 December) with isolated C-class flares
expected. There will also be a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare. Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels on day 3
(26 December), once Regions 1036 and 1038 depart the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (24 - 26
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 078
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  076/074/072
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01