:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2009 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2009
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1038 (N13W81) was
a single spot Axx group today and continues to decay as it
approaches the west limb.  No flares were observed during the past
24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  Solar wind observations from the
ACE spacecraft show a possible weak, short lived, coronal hole
signature during the past 24 hours.  Velocities steadily increased
after 24/0300Z from 350 km/s to 450 km/s as the density decreased. 
Solar wind speed has since slowly decreased and returned to around
350 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (25-27
December).
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 077
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  074/072/072
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01