:Product: 0206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  A new region emerged at a
rapid pace today and was numbered Region 1045 (N24E15).  The region
produced several C-class events and a M2/Sn event at 06/1859Z.  The
region has grown to around 290 millionths of white light area
coverage with a magnetic beta-gamma configuration and a possible
delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions, and a
slight chance for isolated minor storming for the next three days
(07-09 February).  The increase in activity is expected due to CME
activity from 02-03 February and a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       red
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 088
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  090/092/094
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  012/012-012/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05