:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N21E50) produced a
low-level C-class flare early in the period. Region 1046 (N24W36)
continued to gradually decay. No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 1048.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.  ACE
solar wind data indicated an interplanetary shock passage at
approximately 15/1725Z. This was followed by a weak geomagnetic
sudden impulse at 15/1832Z (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The
shock was likely associated with the M8/CME event of 12 February.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during  days 1 - 2 (16 -
17 February) with a chance for active levels. Activity is expected
to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (18 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 088
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  086/084/084
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-010/010-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01