:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare was
observed on the west limb near old Region 1045 (N23, L=256). Regions
1046 (N22W49) and 1048 (N21E34) continued to gradually decay and
simplify. No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1048.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred until 16/0300Z, then decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels. A further decrease to quiet levels occurred after 16/1200Z.
The active levels were due to periods of sustained southward IMF Bz
(minimum -11 nT at 15/2124Z) combined with enhanced IMF Bt (maximum
11 nT at 15/2102Z) associated with a CME passage. Solar wind
velocities varied from 254 - 366 km/s during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during days 1 - 3 (17 - 19 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 087
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  086/084/084
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01