:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Isolated B-class flares
occurred during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels.  There is a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during day 1 (19 February).  Activity is expected to decrease
to mostly quiet levels on days 2 - 3 (20 - 21 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 085
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  085/085/084
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01